Social protection links across sectors critical in getting to zero poverty

By: Vidya Diwakar and Adeniran Adedeji

Cassava processing, a source of employment to Nigerian women

Photo credit: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture

Nigeria has a large and growing share of people living in poverty. Roughly 40.1% of its population live below the national poverty line, while a similar share (46.4%) are multidimensionally poor. Covid19 has amplified these concerns, forecasted to push an estimated additional 10 million Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2022.

Research by CPAN and CSEA investigated key drivers associated with descents into and exits from relative monetary poverty across zones of Nigeria, the ways in which COVID-19 pandemic are likely to impact on these dynamics, and the implications for the design of social protection programmes and policy in Nigeria.

Pathways out of poverty constrained by vicious cycle of shocks and insecurity

The analysis uncovered limited sustained poverty escapes (6% of households), but a large share (19%) of households that experienced impoverishment or just transitory escapes from poverty, with spatial variations. If more of these households could be converted into sustained escapes, poverty would reduce in Nigeria.

To escape poverty, many households rely on land, education, and good health to enable livelihood-based pathways out of poverty. Engagement in non-farm enterprises (NFEs) is a common source of poverty escapes in the country, particularly for households with good health and some savings to start up the business. Salaried employment can drive sustained poverty escapes, particularly when coupled with completion of at least lower secondary education. In its absence, poverty escapes through agriculture are also possible, with land ownership important in guarding against subsequent descents into poverty.  

However, high volatility of income especially in non-farm businesses during Covid19 has aggravated the riskiness of enterprises, limited education access, worsened health outcomes, and constrained the ability of households in poverty to effectively respond to shocks. The resulting hunger and distress coping strategies that emerge during Covid19 has created a vicious cycle limiting the potential of households to develop viable livelihoods to escape poverty in the time ahead.

Figure 1: Vicious cycle (outer circle) limiting poverty escapes (inner circle)

What can be done to support asset-enabled livelihood pathways out of poverty in Nigeria?

The research identified various factors that hold back the emerging social protection system from having a greater impact in reducing poverty. Key among them include a heavy dependence on using a social register that remains limited geographically and in its ability to provide real-time information on a household’s potentially changing status, the latter especially important in Covid. There is a pressing need to scale up investments in social protection policies, programmes and systems at federal and state levels-- especially in real-time selection and updating, and identification of a wider range of participants.

In addition, integrating social protection with other interventions in human development and livelihood sectors is relevant in better balancing the 3Ps of social protection (protection, prevention, and promotion). However, in a situation of weak governance, the institutional mechanisms for arbitrage may be limited, and so prioritising issues that require integration becomes key, as is ensuring contextual relevance in different regions.

The results of the analysis point to issues particularly important in helping tackle chronic poverty, prevent impoverishment, and ensure sustained escapes from poverty, and that concurrently work to address the 3ps of social protection (protection, prevention, and promotion). Examples of such interventions include effectively addressing ill health through access to quality services free at the point of delivery, responding to key sources of livelihood risk in non-farm businesses and agriculture (e.g. through micro-insurance), and supporting asset development.

In efforts to integrate, social protection could be at the core of a sequence over a period of years, with social assistance gradually combined with individual and collective savings and credit (e.g. through GEEP), education catch-up if necessary, and then with technical and business skill upgrading, and business development advice and/or agricultural extension support.

Addressing the vicious cycle through integrated social protection is an important component of enabling sustained poverty escapes in Nigeria

Covid-19 Poverty Monitor project launch

In addition to the devastating impacts that Covid-19 is having on health and health systems, the pandemic is continuing to wreak havoc on social and economic activities around the world. A great deal of attention and research has been initiated around the impacts of the pandemic on economic growth, food production and service delivery. But to understand more fully what is needed to address the negative social and economic impacts of the pandemic, we must put people at the centre of this analysis. The Chronic Poverty Advisory Network’s new Covid-19 Poverty Monitoring Bulletin interviews people living in poverty, or who are at risk of impoverishment, about their experiences during the pandemic. As the world embarks on its project of ‘building back better’, the perspective of people living in poverty should be at the centre of these discussions to help build back in a way to truly seeks to eliminate poverty once and for all.

CPAN, with support from a range of network partners in affected countries, will be releasing a regular bulletin to help policy and decision-makers understand the affect Covid-19 and the policies needed to protect vulnerable communities from impoverishment and destitution.

Between September-October 2020, we began conducting telephone interviews with a small sample of people in Kenya (24) and Nepal (15) to understand any changes that the pandemic, and related government containment measures, have had on their wellbeing and the wellbeing of those around them. Every person we spoke to has had some negative impact on their wellbeing, and many are at risk of impoverishment. Those already in poverty at risk of further deprivation.

Our key findings from Kenya and Nepal are:

•  Older people are experiencing social isolation, due to the perception they are high risk of the virus

• Informal support networks have broken down due to lockdown and movement restrictions

• Children’s education is disrupted, with some indicating they won’t return to school

• Caring responsibilities for children and older relatives have increased, disrupting livelihoods activities and adding stress

• Livelihoods are being lost due to insecure employment, market closures, border closures and a range of other factors

• Food security is being threatened due to lost income and the compounding effects of poor harvests due to climate change (Nepal) and increased prices for staples (Kenya).

Find out how we collected data in our methodology note.

Over the coming months, CPAN will be publishing regular bulletins on the impacts of Covid-19 on poverty in Kenya and Nepal and expanding these bulletins to cover Ethiopia, India, Malawi, Rwanda Zambia and Zimbabwe. We will also be publishing regular content such as interviews with policymakers, blogs, and content from network partners and other sources that help to understand the impacts of Covid-19 on the poorest and those at risk of impoverishment.