Insecurity, Livelihoods, and Welfare in Northern Nigeria

Nigeria faces high and rising poverty. In 2023, 56.2 per cent of the population (125.8 million people) lived below the national poverty line and 41.8 per cent lived on less than $3 per day (World Bank 2025). Multidimensional poverty affected 63 per cent of the population in 2022 (NBS 2022), while 14–15 million people are expected to require humanitarian assistance between October 2025 and May 2026, especially in the North East and parts of the North West (FEWS NET 2025). Poverty is concentrated in Northern Nigeria, particularly in areas affected by insecurity. In 2024 alone, conflict caused 11,678 deaths, with 63.6 per cent occurring in four states: Borno, Zamfara, Katsina, and Benue (analysis of ACLED 2025).

Conflict and poverty reinforce each other. Violence undermines livelihoods, agricultural production, and markets, while diverting state resources and destroying assets. At the same time, poverty and limited livelihood opportunities can increase vulnerability to recruitment by armed groups and predatory actors including political elites who actively recruit, finance, and organise violence (Sakor et al. 2025; Jones and Kotarska 2025).

This study aims to strengthen localised understanding of the links between regional insecurity, livelihoods, and welfare outcomes in Northern Nigeria. It is distinguished from other work on crises and poverty (e.g. Diwakar et al. 2025) especially through its focus on conflict dynamics disaggregated by type of violence (Boko Haram in the North East (NE), banditry especially in the North West (NW) though also in other regions, and farmer-herder conflicts in the North Central (NC) region), consideration of welfare in terms of monetary/multidimensional poverty and food insecurity, concentrated analysis in the North, and use of newly available nationally-representative household survey data in Nigeria. Coupling this household survey data analysis with reanalysis of recent qualitative data collected in a subset of Nigeria’s Northern states, the study seeks to inform humanitarian and development programming and provide policy recommendations for reducing poverty, building resilience, and interrupting the poverty-conflict relationship in conflict-affected Northern states. This paper asks:

1. What is the bidirectional relationship between the dynamics of insecurity and household welfare in Northern Nigeria?

2. What are key drivers of monetary welfare despite conflict in the North, with a focus on livelihoods and their enabling conditions?

3. How do these drivers vary by area of residence, gender, and age in Northern Nigeria?

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Written by Vidya Diwakar, Judith-Ann Walker, Kareem Abdulrasaq

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Poverty and Intersecting Crises in Madagascar

Madagascar faces one of the world’s most complex crisis environments, where climate-related disasters, recurrent economic shocks, and political instability intersect to shape persistent and widespread poverty. The country’s national poverty rate stood at 75.2% of the population in 2022, a slight increase from 73% a decade earlier in 2012 (EPM, 2012; EPM, 2022). It has the world’s highest rate of extreme poverty (UNICEF, 2023). Droughts – particularly in the Grand Sud – combine with cyclones and floods to erode livelihoods, while economic crises related to price volatility, revenue losses, and the long-lasting impacts of COVID-19 further depress household welfare. These shocks occur within a structural context characterised by weak infrastructure, limited market integration, low-productivity agriculture, and fragile governance systems. Understanding how these crises reinforce one another is central to explaining why national poverty levels have remained extremely high and largely stagnant over the past decade. This paper examines climate-related disasters (droughts and floods) and economic shocks and stressors – against a backdrop of other crises including conflict and political violence – to assess their relationship with household poverty in Madagascar.

This work is part of a broader working paper series on intersecting crises and poverty in different country contexts (e.g. see Diwakar and Brzezinska, 2023).

In common with the other working papers on this topic, this paper brings together secondary literature on the pandemic and in this case draws on four particular datasets:

• the ‘Enquête Permanente auprès des Ménages’ (EPM) 2021/22;

• the Global Flood Observatory (GFO) yearly data, from 2010 to 2018;

• the Climatic Research Unit Time Series (CRU TS) yearly data on drought, from 2010 to 2022; and

• the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) yearly data from 2010 to 2022.

Contextualising poverty against a backdrop of shocks, stressors, and crises requires bringing together poverty correlates relating to ‘people’, focused especially on demographics and livelihoods, and ‘place’, including the broader contexts that might inhibit escape from poverty, like crises. This approach is critical to ensure that pro-poor initiatives are sufficiently risk-informed to help support poverty reduction.

Authored by Vidya Diwakar and Arnaud Galinié

Making Zambia's Growth Poles More Inclusive

Zambia continues to face increasing climate variability and shocks especially droughts, floods, and cyclones. These undermine agricultural and energy production, with subsequent negative impacts on food and water security, incomes, and livelihoods. Zambia’s national development strategies prioritise geographically targeted investments or ‘growth poles’ in agriculture, mining, tourism, and manufacturing, which are intended to serve as engines of pro-poor growth.

This policy brief synthesises evidence on whether growth poles – particularly mining areas, sugar estates, farm blocks including agro-processing yards, tourism areas, and industrial yards – contribute to poverty reduction and climate resilience in Zambia, and proposes policy measures that are needed to strengthen the poverty reduction and resilience-building effects of growth poles. It draws on nationally representative panel data – the 2012, 2015, and 2019 Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS), and the 2022 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) – complemented by spatial analysis and extensive qualitative fieldwork.

Authors: Andrew Shepherd, Mary Lubungu, Cleopas Sambo, Benny Kabwela, Richard Bwalya, Arthur Moonga, Vidya Diwakar and Herrick Mwewa

Harnessing Growth Poles for Poverty Reduction and Climate Resilience in Zambia

Zambia is increasingly exposed to climate-related shocks, particularly droughts and floods, which continue to undermine agricultural productivity, household welfare, and long-term development. In response, geographically concentrated investments – referred to as growth poles – have been promoted as engines of pro-poor growth and resilience. However, evidence of their effectiveness is limited. This study examines whether and how growth poles contribute to poverty reduction and climate resilience using a mixed-methods approach that combines nationally representative spatial data from Living Conditions Monitoring Surveys, panel data on poverty trajectories from the Rural and Agricultural Livelihood Survey, and qualitative evidence from focus group discussions, life histories, and key informant interviews conducted across selected growth pole districts, including including farm blocks, mining areas, national parks, and sugar estates.

The findings show that growth poles can stimulate economic activity and generate new livelihood opportunities, but their impacts are uneven and context-specific. Agro-industrial growth poles, particularly sugar estates, exhibit the strongest poverty outcomes due to deeper integration with local production systems and labour markets. Mining areas generate significant economic dynamism and employment opportunities, but benefits are uneven, often accruing to individuals with higher skills, capital, or social connections, including migrants. In contrast, farm blocks and national parks show persistently high poverty levels, reflecting limited infrastructure, restricted access to productive resources, and the seasonal or unstable nature of available opportunities.

Proximity to growth poles does not automatically translate into improved welfare. Only a small share of households live close to these investments, and poverty remains high even among nearby communities. In some cases, households located in intermediate zones (21–60km from growth poles) exhibit better poverty outcomes than those closest to growth poles, suggesting that spillover benefits – such as improved market access – extend beyond core investment areas while avoiding congestion and rising living costs. Growth poles contribute to livelihood diversification, which is a key pathway to resilience. Households engaged in non-farm employment, enterprise activities, and diversified income portfolios are better able to cope with climatic shocks. However, the resilience benefits of diversification depend on the quality and stability of these opportunities. In many cases, growth pole-linked employment is informal, low paid, and seasonal, limiting its ability to provide sustained protection against shocks.

A central finding is that growth poles generate selective rather than broad-based welfare gains. Households with greater amounts of assets, more education, and more developed social networks are better positioned to benefit from employment, contracts, and supply opportunities. As a result, growth poles contribute to localised economic transformation while reinforcing socioeconomic differentiation. Importantly, households that do not benefit are not necessarily worse off than before, but experience more limited gains relative to others, reflecting uneven inclusion rather than absolute decline. The study also finds that growth poles do not automatically enhance climate resilience. In some contexts, particularly mining aeras and farm blocks, resilience has declined over time due to unstable livelihoods, continued reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture, and structural constraints such as limited land access and weak market integration.

Policy implications emphasise the need for complementary interventions. Strengthening household asset bases is critical for enabling participation in growth pole economies and enhancing resilience. Improving access to appropriately structured finance – particularly for productive investment – can support livelihood upgrading, though grant-based support remains necessary for poorer households. Promoting diversification must be accompanied by efforts to improve the quality and stability of non-farm employment. Strengthening local participation in supply chains is essential to ensure that growth pole demand benefits surrounding communities. Finally, extending investments beyond core growth pole areas can enhance spillover benefits and support more inclusive regional development.

Overall, growth poles have the potential to contribute to poverty reduction and climate resilience, but only when they are supported by policies that expand access to opportunities and address underlying structural inequalities. Without such measures, their benefits are likely to remain localised and uneven.

Authors: Mary Lubungu, Benny Kabwela, Brian Mulenga, Richard Bwalya, Arthur Moonga

System Strengthening for Climate Resilience

Zambia experienced a severe drought characterised by a record-breaking dry spell from January to March 2024 (Zambia Society Trust 2024; WFP 2024a). The drought affected eight out of Zambia’s ten provinces, with the greatest impact in Southern, Central, Eastern, North-Western, Western, and Lusaka Provinces (Figure 1). Reports suggest that the drought during the 2023/24 agricultural season was the worst in 40 years (DMMU 2024 OCHA 2024; WFP 2024; Mwape et al. 2025), placing millions of households at heightened risk of hunger and destitution. The drought’s ripple effects (WFP 2024b; ACAPS 2025) included: crop and livestock losses; food shortages; reduced water supply; outbreaks of cholera and diarrhoea tied to diminished access to clean water; and widespread and frequent load shedding and energy shortages lasting well into 2025. Furthermore, the drought had macro-economic effects (including inflation, and reduced growth, revenues, and debt repayment capacity), and potentially political effects in the sense that the upcoming election in August 2026 may be influenced by perceptions on how the government handled the drought response.

Authors: Jeremy Allouche, Bridget Bwalya, Richard Bwalya, Vidya Diwakar, Felix Kalaba, Lukonga Luwabelwa, Arthur Moonga, Kate Pruce, Andrew Shepherd, and Marja Hinfelaar

Poverty in Polycrisis

We are living in a period of global volatility in which intersecting crises are combining with devastating impacts for people already living in and near poverty. This book carefully examines the dynamics of these crises and challenges us to find new ways forward for policies and programming that more effectively meet the needs of the world’s most vulnerable populations.

The book highlights lived experiences of those who are impacted most by poverty amidst intersecting crises—namely climate-related disasters, violent conflict and economic instability— drawing on the author’s 15 years of experience in sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia. It examines chronic poverty amidst intersecting crises, highlighting how new impoverishment may emerge, and even surprisingly how some people manage to escape or remain out of poverty in these contexts. It offers a multi-scalar, dynamic investigation of poverty and intersecting crises to identify ways forward for policies and programming.

It is an essential read for practitioners working on poverty and inequality reduction in low- and middle-income countries, as well as for researchers and students of global development, environmental and peace studies, and economics, public policy, and sociology more broadly.

Written by Vidya Diwakar, IDS Research Fellow and CPAN Deputy Director

What is the Evidence on System Strengthening for Nutrition-Sensitive Social Protection?

This rapid literature review summarises evidence on system strengthening for nutrition-sensitive social protection, focusing on evidence and lessons learned relevant for eastern and southern Africa. It identifies academic and grey literature published since 2015.

The evidence shows that social protection measures, including cash transfers, cash-plus approaches, school feeding, and public works, can consistently improve food consumption and diet quality. However, evidence of impact on nutritional status is more mixed. This reflects the fact that malnutrition is driven by multiple factors beyond income alone. Social protection is therefore most likely to contribute to improved nutrition when it is linked to complementary services such as nutrition counselling, health, water, sanitation and hygiene, and food system support.

The review identifies several priorities for strengthening nutrition-sensitive social protection design. Programmes are more likely to support better diet-related outcomes when they have clear nutrition objectives, evidence-informed theories of change, and strong links to available services and local drivers of malnutrition. A life course approach is particularly important, including attention to pregnant and lactating women, young children, and other nutritionally vulnerable groups. The evidence also highlights the importance of gender-responsive design and getting the ‘dosage’ right: transfer size, duration, predictability, timing, and the quality and intensity of non-monetary support all matter.

At system level, the review points to a common set of enabling conditions: stronger policy alignment between nutrition and social protection; effective multisectoral coordination; predictable and adequate financing; sufficient frontline workforce capacity; and interoperable information, monitoring, and referral systems. Case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, and Mozambique illustrate promising approaches, including life cycle targeting, community-based counselling, integrated digital management information systems, and home-grown school feeding. As a social protection instrument, school feeding provides direct support to vulnerable children while also serving as a practical entry point for improving nutrition, strengthening school participation, and linking food demand to local producers. It is therefore notable that several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Zambia, and in Asia have explicitly recognised school feeding in their United Nations Food Systems Summit national pathways as a means of advancing wider national development priorities and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

However, important gaps remain. These include limited attention to marginalised groups, weak practical integration between nutrition and social protection systems, and insufficient adaptation to context, including differences in market functioning, remoteness, and exposure to climate shocks. Together, these weaknesses can reduce both the effectiveness and the equity of programme outcomes.

Authors: Becky Carter, Research, IDS and Inka Barnett, Research Fellow, IDS

Transforming Climate and Socioeconomic Resilience among Poor and Vulnerable Rural and Urban Households in Zambia

Front cover of policy brief

Zambia faces a dual challenge of persistent poverty and escalating climate risks, particularly droughts and floods, which increasingly disrupt livelihoods, infrastructure, and macroeconomic stability. This policy brief synthesises findings from a comprehensive policy and programme analysis examining how national frameworks address climate adaptation, disaster risk management, and social protection. The analysis indicates that Zambia has developed a robust policy architecture anchored in Vision 2030, the Eighth National Development Plan, and the National Adaptation Plan. However, systemic gapsremain in financing, coordination, data integration, and implementation effectiveness.

Resilience (defined here as the capacity of households to recover from shocks) is typically achieved by households at high levels of welfare. The key question is how policies and public action can help households at lower levels of welfare to achieve higher degrees of resilience.

While notable progress has been achieved through institutional reforms, early warning systems, climate-smart agriculture initiatives, and digital social registries, resilience investments are fragmented and predominantly donor driven. The transition from reactive crisis response towards anticipatory, risk-informed governance is underway but incomplete. Rural populations remain highly exposed due to reliance on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources, while urban vulnerabilities are rising, with rapid informal settlement growth and infrastructure deficits.

This brief proposes consolidating existing frameworks into a national resilience strategy, supported by predictable financing, integrated data systems, greater capacity at local level, and strengthened accountability mechanisms. Embedding resilience within fiscal policy, incentivising private sector engagement, and enhancing subnational and, especially, community-level (first responder) implementation capacity are central to achieving sustainable outcomes.

Authors: Bridget Bwalya, Richard Bwalya, Vidya Diwakar, Felix Kalaba, Lukonga Luwabelwa, Arthur Moonga, Kate Pruce, Andrew Shepherd, and Marja Hinfelaar. Reviewed by Herrick Mwewa, Ministry of Green Economy, Republic of Zambia.

What is the Evidence on System Strengthening for National Disaster Risk Management and Humanitarian Systems in Eastern and Southern Africa?

This rapid literature review synthesises evidence on strengthening systems for national disaster risk management (DRM) and humanitarian response, with a focus on East and Southern Africa. This review looks at countries’ longer-term DRM measures and their immediate humanitarian response during crises. Part of this evidence is on how the national system coordinates with international humanitarian response (actors and interventions), and whether international actors and interventions have helped support the strengthening of national systems. However, the focus of this review is not on the international humanitarian response itself.

The review finds a fragmented and uneven evidence base. Most studies centre on disaster response rather than risk reduction or recovery. There is limited in-depth analysis of approaches attempting to strengthen the sustainability of government DRM systems. Four core themes are identified across the literature: the need for coherent links between DRM and climate resilience; the importance of risk-informed development; the growing relevance of systemic risks; and the role of government leadership in coordinating emergency response. The evidence highlights examples of progress in legislation, coordination mechanisms, financing systems, community-based preparedness, and social protection linkages, although capacity constraints and under-investment remain persistent barriers.

Author: Becky Carter, Researcher, IDS

Click here to read the literature review

What is the Evidence on System Strengthening for Building Climate Resilience in Eastern and Southern Africa?

This literature review summarises evidence on system strengthening for climate resilience, focusing on evidence and lessons learned for eastern and southern Africa. It synthesises key findings from academic and grey literature published since 2015, highlighting what has worked to strengthen national policy, governance, coordination, and financing systems, and explored evidence on programming in key sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, financial inclusion, social protection, and health. Mirroring the wide remit, this review has found a broad literature, but limited in-depth research overall looking from policy intent and programme design to system-strengthening outcomes for climate resilience in this region.

Two key priorities for strengthening systems that emerge from reading across the literature include integrating climate adaptation with disaster risk management for coherent policy, and promoting equity-focused approaches. The evidence on policy, governance, and coordination emphasises the pivotal role of ministries of finance and platforms to enable coordinated action across government, and resourced decentralisation. The literature also highlights that local civil society organisations, public–private partnerships, and regional cooperation all have roles in strengthening climate-resilient systems. Across the sectoral evidence, critical enablers include investing in participatory and locally led approaches; valuing indigenous knowledge; providing tailored support for marginalised farmers; and ensuring system-strengthening efforts incorporate a gender and social inclusion lens.

Author: Becky Carter, Researcher, IDS

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Growth from Below: Poverty Reduction beyond Social Protection in Nigeria

BASIC Research Policy Briefing 11 - Published on 13 October 2025

Agriculture and informal economies provide essential livelihoods in Nigeria, but they face challenges such as climate shocks, conflict, low investment, and financial exclusion. Resilience strategies include diversification, microfinance access and entrepreneurial ventures, but policy support is limited, particularly for informal activities. Government focus needs to shift from taxation to productive support, to enhance financial inclusion, strengthen social protection, and empower women through asset ownership and business development. Sustainable poverty reduction requires adaptive policies that integrate economic stability, peacebuilding, infrastructure, and social resilience.

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Cite this publication

Abdulrasaq, K. and Shepherd, A. (2025) 'Growth from Below: Poverty Reduction beyond Social Protection in Nigeria', BASIC Research Policy Briefing 11, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/BASIC.2025.027

Social Assistance and Poverty Reduction Amidst Multiple Crises

BASIC Research Policy Briefing 9 - Published on 11 September 2025

BASIC Research in Borno, Nigeria, demonstrates that the provision of social assistance can help build the capacity to escape poverty, even in crises. Studies show that social assistance improves poor people’s consumption levels, human capital formation and economic growth from below. Nigeria has the foundational pieces of social assistance in place (draft policy, programme, social registry) and could expand social assistance coverage rapidly to poor and vulnerable populations affected by polycrises. However, there is a lack of trust in social assistance and in government. Commitment to carrying out regular impact evaluations would improve this evidence base.

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Cite this publication

Shepherd, A. et al. (2025) 'Social Assistance and Poverty Reduction Amidst Multiple Crises', BASIC Research Policy Briefing 9, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/BASIC.2025.017

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Political Perspectives of Social Assistance Amidst Economic Shocks in Nigeria

BASIC Research Briefing 7 - Published on 31 October 2025

Economic shocks represent an important dimension of protracted crises characterised by conflict and climate-related extremes. This note examines views of different actors in Nigeria on whether and how social assistance should be used to help households negatively affected by these shocks. It identifies the political outlook of those who view social assistance as: 1) A fundamental right espoused in the social contract focused on marginalised groups; 2) A right but focused on technocratic aspects of delivery; 3) A tool to maintain financial discipline, applied to respond to crises when systems fail; and 4) A means of strengthening political influence. The power of groups with these perspectives offers insights about the underlying constraints of social assistance.

Cite this publication

Abdulrasaq, K.; Walker, J.-A.; Ukpai, S. and Diwakar, V. (2025) ‘Political Perspectives of Social Assistance Amidst Economic Shocks in Nigeria’, BASIC Research Research Briefing 7, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/IDS.2025.043

Learning from Cash Plus: A Summary of Evidence

This paper aims to provide an evidence base for what works best in terms of cash plus programmes, referring to approaches that combine cash transfers with additional inputs, interventions and support to amplify the effects of the transfers. As a desk-based review, it draws on secondary literature, including existing studies and evaluations. The paper identifies different potential cash plus combinations and delivery models, emphasising that cash plus and graduation are not directly interchangeable. The paper then presents and discusses existing evidence of cash plus approaches and impacts across a range of sectors: nutrition, health, women’s empowerment, livelihoods and assets. Drawing on the evidence base and wider literature, the paper identifies key lessons for countries adopting or expanding cash plus programmes, focusing on policy-level factors, basic building blocks and programme-level factors, and supply-side factors.

Written by Kate Pruce, Roz Price and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler

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Rural Pathways out of Poverty in Zambia

Poverty rates are high in Zambia, with the incidence of poverty having increased from 54.4 per cent in 2015 to 60.0 per cent in 2022 (ZamStats 2023). This overall trend hides variations according to area of residence and socio-demographic characteristics. For example, poverty is largely a rural rather than an urban phenomenon, with the incidence of poverty in rural areas estimated at 78.8 per cent compared with 31.9 per cent for urban areas as of 2022 (ibid.). Poverty is also more prevalent among female-headed households (83.4 per cent) compared with male-headed households (77.3 per cent). Comparisons between 2015 and 2022 shows that the proportionate increase in poverty rates was higher among female-headed households (4.5 per cent) compared with male-headed households (0.7 per cent). Poverty in Zambia is also associated with the livelihood strategies that households pursue. For instance, poverty is highest among those employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, increasing from 63.9 per cent in 2015 to 64.7 per cent in 2022 (ibid.).

This working paper aims to synthesise evidence on pathways out of rural poverty for the Government of Zambia and other stakeholders. It uses mixed-methods evidence on rural poverty graduation pathways in Zambia, categorising these pathways into three groups: (1) chronically and extremely poor people escaping poverty, (2) moderately poor people escaping poverty, and (3) vulnerable non-poor people maintaining their escape from poverty. This report uses recent quantitative data from 2015 to early 2022, capturing the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on mobility. The life history qualitative analysis extends this further through to November 2023, incorporating the effects of inflation, and the new administration’s social protection and promotion policies. Thus, we can more effectively cover the role of social protection and exit ramps for those receiving social cash transfers (SCTs) while taking into account the most recent impact of climate change on these rural pathways out of poverty.

Written by Lucia da Corta and Richard Bwalya

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Let's go double dipping! Supporting Growth from Below through Cash+

In Zambia, economic growth is primarily driven by large-scale, formal investments in sectors such as minerals, tourism, and services. However, these sectors employ relatively few people and have a limited impact on overall poverty reduction due to weak economic multipliers.

Consequently, Zambia needs complementary efforts focused on “Growth from Below”, small- scale, informal investments at the household level to effectively reduce poverty, particularly in an economy characterised by high inequality and a heavy reliance on minerals. According to the World Bank (2025), Zambia’s economic growth has a minimal effect on poverty alleviation, meaning that even substantial economic growth results in only modest reductions in poverty levels. While governments typically prioritise large-scale investments, a balanced approach that promotes both Growth from Above (GfA) and Growth from Below (GfB) is essential for inclusive and sustainable poverty reduction.

Furthermore, although the minerals sector is economically significant, it inadequately contributes to government revenues due to externalization of financial flows and opaque financial practices on which significant Zambian institutional capacity has been built (Inter-governmental Forum, 2025). Mineral companies are sometimes able to negotiate special agreements with the Ministry of Finance and Planning to minimise or evade taxes and royalties, as in the recent dropping of a 15% export tax. Addressing these transparency and taxation issues, which have long been a concern for the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), is crucial to ensure that revenues from mineral wealth are effectively directed towards supporting broader economic initiatives that can genuinely benefit all Zambians.

Written by Andrew Shepherd

Read the full policy brief here

Political Economy Analysis of Pro-poor Policies in Zambia

In 2024, Zambia experienced the driest agricultural season in over 40 years, with significant crop losses, increased livestock deaths and, consequently, worsening poverty. Over 9 million people in 84 out of 116 districts were affected. Rising inflation impeded access to food for vulnerable households Being dependent on hydropower, the drought resulted in an enormous power deficit. In 2024 and early 2025 Zambia experienced power cuts of 21 hours a day, disproportionately affecting small and medium-sized enterprises that cannot afford solar power or generators.

A debt crisis has exacerbated these climate-related challenges. Zambian debt peaked at 140 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. Along with Covid-19, debt service pressures resulted in Zambia becoming the first African country to default on its external debt service obligations in November 2020, missing a US$42.5 million interest payment on a Eurobond. In addition, Zambia has been hit by three droughts in the past decade. Due to the deaths of two presidents in office (in 2008 and 2014), Zambia has also seen high levels of political turnover, which has impacted policy consistency.

The multiple crises Zambia has faced have had political repercussions, as economic decline has created discontent. The economic effects of crises have further strained the kwacha and resulted in increased inflationary pressures.2 Zambia is under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme that has strict benchmarks when it comes to subsidies for fuel, electricity and fertiliser. This programme ends in August 2025, opening various policy options, though it will lack the fiscal space which gave President Levy Mwanawasa’s free reign after the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative in 2006. The forthcoming elections in August 2026 will be tightly contested; if the opposition can unite behind one candidate, it will also influence policy decisions.

Within this context, this working paper discusses the following questions: How can poverty reduction experience a step change in Zambia? What are the political and economic conditions? And what can research tell the competing political parties and how best to achieve change The paper will briefly focus on the anti-poverty measures undertaken by the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) government (2011–21), which started as a leftist movement, before zooming into the current United Party for National Development (UPND) regime, which is more liberal in outlook. It then focuses on the political economy of current pro-poor programming. The paper is based on a literature review, unpublished reports, and interviews and interactions with relevant stakeholders (government officials, civil society organisations, think tanks and analysts).

Written by Marja Hinfelaar, SAIPAR

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Financial Inclusion and CSA Adoption - Enhancing the Resilience of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Zambia

Financial inclusion is essential to empower smallholder farmers in Zambia, particularly women, enabling them to adopt climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices and build resilience against climate variability. However, access to financial services, such as credit, savings and insurance is limited, impeding farmers’ ability to invest in CSA practices that require significant upfront costs and risk management. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities in promoting financial inclusion for smallholder farmers in Zambia, emphasising the importance of tailored financial tools to address the unique needs of rural communities, especially the most vulnerable groups.

Written by Arthur Moonga, Andrew Shepherd and Lucia da Corta

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Evidence From Cash Plus Programmes: Lessons for Zambia

Social protection strategies, and cash transfer programmes in particular, have been on the rise globally since the early 2000s. By 2019, 35 African countries had adopted a national social protection policy or strategy. Cash plus approaches (including graduation programmes) addressing a wider range of socioeconomic outcomes emerged more recently and have expanded quickly. The Zambian government approved a cash plus approach in 2022, and a range of cash plus interventions are already being implemented. Exploring cash plus experiences and evidence from other countries is key to informing programme development, with a focus on what we can learn from these contexts that is relevant for Zambia. This includes ‘what works’ in terms of different combinations of cash plus components as well as how to deliver through national and local governance structures.

Written by Roz Price, Kate Pruce and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler

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The Politics of Cash Plus in Zambia

Social protection is now well-established on the policy agenda in Zambia, including various cash plus initiatives and social protection responses to shocks, such as the recent drought. This paper considers lessons from the success story of expanding social cash transfers in Zambia and applies these to the country’s current social protection context. Using a 3I(R) approach to political economy analysis, which focuses on institutions, interests, ideas and resources, the paper proposes a series of conclusions and recommendations drawn from this analysis. These include the value of consistency and persistence in promoting a policy idea, ideally through a strong policy coalition; the importance of connecting policy and political constituencies; the role of political motivation and suggestions for alignment with government ideas and priorities. There is currently political momentum for cash plus, as well as a growing evidence base both globally and within Zambia, which now needs to be translated into financial commitment. Establishing a more comprehensive suite of social protection programmes for households with and without labour capacity can contribute to upward mobility out of poverty and building resilience to future shocks in Zambia.

Written by Kate Pruce

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