Let's go double dipping! Supporting Growth from Below through Cash+

In Zambia, economic growth is primarily driven by large-scale, formal investments in sectors such as minerals, tourism, and services. However, these sectors employ relatively few people and have a limited impact on overall poverty reduction due to weak economic multipliers.

Consequently, Zambia needs complementary efforts focused on “Growth from Below”, small- scale, informal investments at the household level to effectively reduce poverty, particularly in an economy characterised by high inequality and a heavy reliance on minerals. According to the World Bank (2025), Zambia’s economic growth has a minimal effect on poverty alleviation, meaning that even substantial economic growth results in only modest reductions in poverty levels. While governments typically prioritise large-scale investments, a balanced approach that promotes both Growth from Above (GfA) and Growth from Below (GfB) is essential for inclusive and sustainable poverty reduction.

Furthermore, although the minerals sector is economically significant, it inadequately contributes to government revenues due to externalization of financial flows and opaque financial practices on which significant Zambian institutional capacity has been built (Inter-governmental Forum, 2025). Mineral companies are sometimes able to negotiate special agreements with the Ministry of Finance and Planning to minimise or evade taxes and royalties, as in the recent dropping of a 15% export tax. Addressing these transparency and taxation issues, which have long been a concern for the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), is crucial to ensure that revenues from mineral wealth are effectively directed towards supporting broader economic initiatives that can genuinely benefit all Zambians.

Authored by Andrew Shepherd

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National Report - Zambian Poverty Dynamics and Climate Resilience: A Growing Policy Agenda Through a Period of Crises

This report synthesises the key research findings of the Zambia Poverty Dynamics programme since the last national report in 2021, whose key findings and recommendations are summarised in Box 1.1. Many dimensions have remained the same; however, the main changes include: (1) a dramatic reversal in urban poverty reduction; (2) a very significant increase in new policy developments, especially in human development, although not yet in ‘growth from below’, but significant progress was achieved in fisheries with the return of fishing ban periods each year on major rivers and lakes to allow fish stocks to recover, laying the foundation for income growth in fishing.

This report starts by laying out which policy interventions have become significantly more visible and impactful since the last report, presenting the evidence from quantitative and qualitative research, and focusing on governance and implementation issues. Policy interventions are even more critical to poverty reduction and climate resilience in the Zambian context, it is argued, because of the ‘enclave’ nature of the dominant mining sector, which leads economic growth, at least when commodity prices are high (Pijuan Sala and Tudela Pye 2024), and which the current government wishes to grow rapidly. The majority of Zambians are employed or self-employed in comparatively low-productivity sectors, agriculture and services, which are generally disconnected from mining and other formal sectors such as tourism. Resulting high levels of inequality do not generate the market demand for micro- and small businesses’ outputs and services, leaving these with low investment and productivity. But they do generate the need and potential for redistribution through taxation, even if fiscal resources are for the moment heavily constrained by debt servicing.

As a result of these high inequalities, growth has not carried everyone with it. Therefore, only interventions will assist poor and vulnerable people to improve their life chances, until the pattern of growth changes and begins to make a contribution. So far the most successful interventions have been in human development. Their success has been extremely valuable but has not yet laid the foundations for more inclusive growth from below, which is necessary if poverty is to be sustainably reduced. Both of these – human development and growth from below – are required to enable sustained escapes from poverty or ‘graduations’, which are the objective of anti-poverty policy.

The report goes on to briefly assess the effects of the multiple crises that have assailed Zambia in the past five years, with an analysis of impacts on urban populations, and differentiating between extremely poor and moderately poor households, and men- and women-headed households. It also looks at policy responses to these crises, including disaster risk management, and raises the question of how to respond in the likely event that such crisis-prone times continue. This is followed by a closely related discussion on whether and how more widespread resilience to climate change might be achieved. The analysis is gendered throughout, and concludes with key policy and programming recommendations.

Authored by Andrew Shepherd, Richard Bwalya, Antony Chapoto, Lucia da Corta, Marta Eichsteller, Vidya Diwakar, Marja Hinfelaar, Mary Lubungu, Arthur Moonga, Brian Mulenga, Kate Pruce, Joseph Simbaya

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Women’s Agency Amid Shocks: A Gendered Analysis of Poverty Dynamics and the Implications for Social Protection in Bangladesh, Peru and the United Republic of Tanzania

The world has experienced multiple crises in recent years– the COVID-19 pandemic, food, fuel and financial crises, climate-related disasters and violent conflict. The need for universal, gender-responsive social protection systems is urgent in this context. This paper employs quantitative panel data and qualitative interviews to present an analysis of gender, poverty dynamics and social protection in three countries spanning different geographies– rural Bangladesh, Peru and the United Republic of Tanzania – amidst shocks and crises. It also examines the implications of these results for social protection system design and implementation.

Results highlight high rates of transient poverty in all three countries, reflecting underlying vulnerability of households and crises-driven downward income mobility. In the face of shocks, women’s resources (e.g., education levels and ownership of phones or financial accounts) and agency within and outside of the household (e.g., right to sell land, comfort in speaking up on public needs) are a critical means of support household resilience. However, adverse financial inclusion and other barriers constrain these efforts. Moreover, low social protection coverage has limited the ability of households and women within them to draw on social protection entitlements to maintain resilience during shocks. Though there was a surge in social protection responses during COVID-19, results suggest that this remained largely inadequate in guarding women’s resilience during the pandemic. Based on the study findings, we derive implications for policymakers and practitioners regarding the gender-responsive design and implementation of social protection during shocks, stressors and crises.

Author: Vidya Diwakar, Deputy Director, Chronic Poverty Advisory Network; Research Fellow, IDS

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World survey on the role of women in development 2024: Harnessing social protection for gender equality, resilience and transformation

The “World survey on the role of women in development” is presented every five years to the Economic and Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly. It provides a unique opportunity to put gender equality issues on the economic policy agenda and bring together perspectives on human rights and sustainable development.

This ninth edition (UN document A/79/111) takes stock of progress, gaps, and challenges in building comprehensive, gender-responsive social protection systems. It provides examples and recommendations on how these systems can better protect women and girls from poverty and deprivation, strengthen their resilience to shocks, and transform social norms, structures, and institutions that keep them from realizing their full potential.

To produce the report, UN Women brought together researchers, policymakers, civil society actors, and UN system partners. The report draws on their collective expertise to provide guidance to policymakers and support advocacy for a new generation of gender-responsive social protection systems equipped to uphold rights and advance sustainable development.

Vidya Diwakar made important contributions to the report, particularly through informing Chapter 1, section C, alongside a forthcoming background report.

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Delegating Authority in Bangladesh to Manage the Covid-19 Pandemic

Bangladesh, like most countries, grappled with the harsh conditions of Covid-19, with little infrastructure and set up of institutions to deal with the consequences of the pandemic.

A country with a large informal economy, and an even larger export manufacturing sector it is highly dependent on, the Bangladesh government had tough decisions to make when it came to saving and protecting the lives of millions, as well as ensuring continued economic activity to save livelihoods.

To strike a balance between protecting both these important factors, the central government adopted a unique approach of mobilising and enabling the local government to implement a lot of measures. Their approach was area centric, in that the local government recognised the needs of their districts, and that looked different for different areas of the country, whether rural or urban, agricultural or industrial focused.

This policy brief outlines some of the local measures and responses that worked in minimising the impact of Covid-19 on the dense Bangladeshi population.

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