Rural Pathways out of Poverty in Zambia

Poverty rates are high in Zambia, with the incidence of poverty having increased from 54.4 per cent in 2015 to 60.0 per cent in 2022 (ZamStats 2023). This overall trend hides variations according to area of residence and socio-demographic characteristics. For example, poverty is largely a rural rather than an urban phenomenon, with the incidence of poverty in rural areas estimated at 78.8 per cent compared with 31.9 per cent for urban areas as of 2022 (ibid.). Poverty is also more prevalent among female-headed households (83.4 per cent) compared with male-headed households (77.3 per cent). Comparisons between 2015 and 2022 shows that the proportionate increase in poverty rates was higher among female-headed households (4.5 per cent) compared with male-headed households (0.7 per cent). Poverty in Zambia is also associated with the livelihood strategies that households pursue. For instance, poverty is highest among those employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, increasing from 63.9 per cent in 2015 to 64.7 per cent in 2022 (ibid.).

This working paper aims to synthesise evidence on pathways out of rural poverty for the Government of Zambia and other stakeholders. It uses mixed-methods evidence on rural poverty graduation pathways in Zambia, categorising these pathways into three groups: (1) chronically and extremely poor people escaping poverty, (2) moderately poor people escaping poverty, and (3) vulnerable non-poor people maintaining their escape from poverty. This report uses recent quantitative data from 2015 to early 2022, capturing the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on mobility. The life history qualitative analysis extends this further through to November 2023, incorporating the effects of inflation, and the new administration’s social protection and promotion policies. Thus, we can more effectively cover the role of social protection and exit ramps for those receiving social cash transfers (SCTs) while taking into account the most recent impact of climate change on these rural pathways out of poverty.

Authored by Lucia da Corta, Richard Bwalya

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Evidence From Cash Plus Programmes: Lessons for Zambia

Social protection strategies, and cash transfer programmes in particular, have been on the rise globally since the early 2000s. By 2019, 35 African countries had adopted a national social protection policy or strategy. Cash plus approaches (including graduation programmes) addressing a wider range of socioeconomic outcomes emerged more recently and have expanded quickly. The Zambian government approved a cash plus approach in 2022, and a range of cash plus interventions are already being implemented. Exploring cash plus experiences and evidence from other countries is key to informing programme development, with a focus on what we can learn from these contexts that is relevant for Zambia. This includes ‘what works’ in terms of different combinations of cash plus components as well as how to deliver through national and local governance structures.

Authored by Roz Price, Kate Pruce and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler

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Let's go double dipping! Supporting Growth from Below through Cash+

In Zambia, economic growth is primarily driven by large-scale, formal investments in sectors such as minerals, tourism, and services. However, these sectors employ relatively few people and have a limited impact on overall poverty reduction due to weak economic multipliers.

Consequently, Zambia needs complementary efforts focused on “Growth from Below”, small- scale, informal investments at the household level to effectively reduce poverty, particularly in an economy characterised by high inequality and a heavy reliance on minerals. According to the World Bank (2025), Zambia’s economic growth has a minimal effect on poverty alleviation, meaning that even substantial economic growth results in only modest reductions in poverty levels. While governments typically prioritise large-scale investments, a balanced approach that promotes both Growth from Above (GfA) and Growth from Below (GfB) is essential for inclusive and sustainable poverty reduction.

Furthermore, although the minerals sector is economically significant, it inadequately contributes to government revenues due to externalization of financial flows and opaque financial practices on which significant Zambian institutional capacity has been built (Inter-governmental Forum, 2025). Mineral companies are sometimes able to negotiate special agreements with the Ministry of Finance and Planning to minimise or evade taxes and royalties, as in the recent dropping of a 15% export tax. Addressing these transparency and taxation issues, which have long been a concern for the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), is crucial to ensure that revenues from mineral wealth are effectively directed towards supporting broader economic initiatives that can genuinely benefit all Zambians.

Authored by Andrew Shepherd

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National Report - Zambian Poverty Dynamics and Climate Resilience: A Growing Policy Agenda Through a Period of Crises

This report synthesises the key research findings of the Zambia Poverty Dynamics programme since the last national report in 2021, whose key findings and recommendations are summarised in Box 1.1. Many dimensions have remained the same; however, the main changes include: (1) a dramatic reversal in urban poverty reduction; (2) a very significant increase in new policy developments, especially in human development, although not yet in ‘growth from below’, but significant progress was achieved in fisheries with the return of fishing ban periods each year on major rivers and lakes to allow fish stocks to recover, laying the foundation for income growth in fishing.

This report starts by laying out which policy interventions have become significantly more visible and impactful since the last report, presenting the evidence from quantitative and qualitative research, and focusing on governance and implementation issues. Policy interventions are even more critical to poverty reduction and climate resilience in the Zambian context, it is argued, because of the ‘enclave’ nature of the dominant mining sector, which leads economic growth, at least when commodity prices are high (Pijuan Sala and Tudela Pye 2024), and which the current government wishes to grow rapidly. The majority of Zambians are employed or self-employed in comparatively low-productivity sectors, agriculture and services, which are generally disconnected from mining and other formal sectors such as tourism. Resulting high levels of inequality do not generate the market demand for micro- and small businesses’ outputs and services, leaving these with low investment and productivity. But they do generate the need and potential for redistribution through taxation, even if fiscal resources are for the moment heavily constrained by debt servicing.

As a result of these high inequalities, growth has not carried everyone with it. Therefore, only interventions will assist poor and vulnerable people to improve their life chances, until the pattern of growth changes and begins to make a contribution. So far the most successful interventions have been in human development. Their success has been extremely valuable but has not yet laid the foundations for more inclusive growth from below, which is necessary if poverty is to be sustainably reduced. Both of these – human development and growth from below – are required to enable sustained escapes from poverty or ‘graduations’, which are the objective of anti-poverty policy.

The report goes on to briefly assess the effects of the multiple crises that have assailed Zambia in the past five years, with an analysis of impacts on urban populations, and differentiating between extremely poor and moderately poor households, and men- and women-headed households. It also looks at policy responses to these crises, including disaster risk management, and raises the question of how to respond in the likely event that such crisis-prone times continue. This is followed by a closely related discussion on whether and how more widespread resilience to climate change might be achieved. The analysis is gendered throughout, and concludes with key policy and programming recommendations.


Authored by Andrew Shepherd, Richard Bwalya, Antony Chapoto, Lucia da Corta, Marta Eichsteller, Vidya Diwakar, Marja Hinfelaar, Mary Lubungu, Arthur Moonga, Brian Mulenga, Kate Pruce, Joseph Simbaya

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Women’s Agency Amid Shocks: A Gendered Analysis of Poverty Dynamics and the Implications for Social Protection in Bangladesh, Peru and the United Republic of Tanzania

The world has experienced multiple crises in recent years– the COVID-19 pandemic, food, fuel and financial crises, climate-related disasters and violent conflict. The need for universal, gender-responsive social protection systems is urgent in this context. This paper employs quantitative panel data and qualitative interviews to present an analysis of gender, poverty dynamics and social protection in three countries spanning different geographies– rural Bangladesh, Peru and the United Republic of Tanzania – amidst shocks and crises. It also examines the implications of these results for social protection system design and implementation.

Results highlight high rates of transient poverty in all three countries, reflecting underlying vulnerability of households and crises-driven downward income mobility. In the face of shocks, women’s resources (e.g., education levels and ownership of phones or financial accounts) and agency within and outside of the household (e.g., right to sell land, comfort in speaking up on public needs) are a critical means of support household resilience. However, adverse financial inclusion and other barriers constrain these efforts. Moreover, low social protection coverage has limited the ability of households and women within them to draw on social protection entitlements to maintain resilience during shocks. Though there was a surge in social protection responses during COVID-19, results suggest that this remained largely inadequate in guarding women’s resilience during the pandemic. Based on the study findings, we derive implications for policymakers and practitioners regarding the gender-responsive design and implementation of social protection during shocks, stressors and crises.

Author: Vidya Diwakar, Deputy Director, Chronic Poverty Advisory Network; Research Fellow, IDS

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Disability, poverty and poverty dynamics: a preliminary analysis of panel data, policies and politics in Bangladesh- A Synthesis

This report is a synthesis of the research developed in the framework of the project 'Disability, poverty and poverty dynamics: a preliminary analysis of panel data, policies and politics in Bangladesh' and aims to summarises its main finding and policy implications. 

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Unpacking Disability-Extreme Poverty Links in Bangladesh through Household Income and Expenditure Survey: A Quantitative Exercise

Persons with disability are often considered as a specific chronic poverty group. However, little empirical evidence exists for developing countries on the size of disabled population. Even less is known about the interface between disability and poverty. The present study aims to provide statistically robust analysis of the state of disability and its interface with poverty and vulnerability through different pathways. 

Authors: Binayak Sen, Mainul Hoque 

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Practical measures to enable the economic empowerment of chronically poor women

This paper focuses on the economic empowerment of poor and very poor women and girls. Advice  on  the  practical  interventions  to  enable  WEE  is  rarely  disaggregated  by  the  intersecting inequalities that magnify poverty and inequality. As such, it fails to address the significant barriers to WEE for chronically poor women. This paper seeks to fill this gap in the literature. 

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(In)tangible assets: The road to economically empowering poor women in Bangladesh and Nigeria

This report assesses drivers of the economic empowerment of chronically poor women and girls in rural Bangladesh and rural Nigeria. The focus is on drivers related to assets, both intangibly in terms of education, and tangibly in terms of ownership of consumption and productive assets including land.

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What works for the poorest, and especially for the poorest women and girls? An assessment of (selected) donor contributions

Thispaper provides the latest analysis of development policies and programmes that work best for the poorest people. It has a particular focus on the poorest women and girls and it also focuses on the work carried out by a number of leading donors, assessing the extent to which they attempt to reach the poorest, and among them the poorest women and girls.

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Can locally-developed indicators catalyse more responsive local government? Findings from the research

This briefing paper provides recommendations for stakeholders on how toimprove accountability and performance in local governance through a local governance performance index (LGPI) at the district level in Tanzania. 

Authors: Rachel Hayman, Anna Mdee and Patricia Tshomba

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Designing a Local Governance Performance Index (LGPI): a problem-solving approach in Tanzania

This working paper details the process of creating a Local Governance Performance Index (LGPI) in Mvomero and Kigoma-Ujiji Districts of Tanzania and of studying its applicability. 

Authors: Anna Mdee, Patricia Tshomba & Andrew Mushi 

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Poverty dynamics and disability in rural Bangladesh: learning from life-history interviews

This paper explores the relationship between disability and poverty dynamics in rural Bangladesh drawing from 293 life-history interviews conducted by the author and a small team of researchers in 2007. The aim of the paper is to use existing life-history interviews to provide initial insights into the relationship between poverty and disability in Bangladesh.

Author: Peter Davis 

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Exploring development and accountability: laying the basis for a local governance performance index in Tanzania

This briefing paper summarises findings around the key questions of what ‘development’ means at the local level, who is responsible for it, and how local government can be held to account in practice. Findings are illustrated with selected quotes from interviews, focus groups and workshops, which demonstrate the challenges that need to be overcome to design and implement a performance index.

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Exploring the Links Between Poverty and Disability in Rural Bangladesh

This paper explores the links between poverty and disability drawing from 60 qualitative life-history interviews conducted in rural Bangladesh, in 48 households, in three districts, in March 2016. The paper provides insights into the relationship between poverty and disability with the aim of informing policy and practice concerned with both reducing poverty and improving the life chances of people with disabilities.

Author: Peter Davis

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A tale of triple disadvantages: Disability and poverty dynamics amongst women in rural Bangladesh

The focus of the paper is on persistently poor women with disabilities in Bangladesh. It seeks to contribute to the disability and chronic poverty policy discourse and work towards developing effective poverty reduction measures by investigating daily activities and coping strategies of poor persons with disabilities.

Author: Vidya Diwakar

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Anti-discrimination measures in education: A comparative policy analysis

Efforts to tackle discrimination in access to basic services have shown mixed results in different country settings. This study examines the positive and negative outcomes attributed to anti-discrimination measures adopted in different country contexts and analyses the factors contributing to these outcomes, with a specific focus on anti-discrimination measures in education.

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Exploring lines of blame and accountability in local service delivery

The selection of indicators for the creation of an index is critical if it is to be used as a mechanism to hold local government to account. Clear lines of responsibility and accountability need to be incorporated into the selection of indicators so the index can be applied at the local level.

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