Learning from Cash Plus: A Summary of Evidence

October 8, 2025 CPAN

This paper aims to provide an evidence base for what works best in terms of cash plus programmes, referring to approaches that combine cash transfers with additional inputs, interventions and support to amplify the effects of the transfers. As a desk-based review, it draws on secondary literature, including existing studies and evaluations. The paper identifies different potential cash plus combinations and delivery models, emphasising that cash plus and graduation are not directly interchangeable. The paper then presents and discusses existing evidence of cash plus approaches and impacts across a range of sectors: nutrition, health, women’s empowerment, livelihoods and assets. Drawing on the evidence base and wider literature, the paper identifies key lessons for countries adopting or expanding cash plus programmes, focusing on policy-level factors, basic building blocks and programme-level factors, and supply-side factors.

Written by Kate Pruce, Roz Price and Rachel Sabates-Wheeler

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Rural Pathways out of Poverty in Zambia

October 8, 2025 CPAN

Poverty rates are high in Zambia, with the incidence of poverty having increased from 54.4 per cent in 2015 to 60.0 per cent in 2022 (ZamStats 2023). This overall trend hides variations according to area of residence and socio-demographic characteristics. For example, poverty is largely a rural rather than an urban phenomenon, with the incidence of poverty in rural areas estimated at 78.8 per cent compared with 31.9 per cent for urban areas as of 2022 (ibid.). Poverty is also more prevalent among female-headed households (83.4 per cent) compared with male-headed households (77.3 per cent). Comparisons between 2015 and 2022 shows that the proportionate increase in poverty rates was higher among female-headed households (4.5 per cent) compared with male-headed households (0.7 per cent). Poverty in Zambia is also associated with the livelihood strategies that households pursue. For instance, poverty is highest among those employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, increasing from 63.9 per cent in 2015 to 64.7 per cent in 2022 (ibid.).

This working paper aims to synthesise evidence on pathways out of rural poverty for the Government of Zambia and other stakeholders. It uses mixed-methods evidence on rural poverty graduation pathways in Zambia, categorising these pathways into three groups: (1) chronically and extremely poor people escaping poverty, (2) moderately poor people escaping poverty, and (3) vulnerable non-poor people maintaining their escape from poverty. This report uses recent quantitative data from 2015 to early 2022, capturing the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on mobility. The life history qualitative analysis extends this further through to November 2023, incorporating the effects of inflation, and the new administration’s social protection and promotion policies. Thus, we can more effectively cover the role of social protection and exit ramps for those receiving social cash transfers (SCTs) while taking into account the most recent impact of climate change on these rural pathways out of poverty.

Written by Lucia da Corta and Richard Bwalya

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Let's go double dipping! Supporting Growth from Below through Cash+

October 8, 2025 CPAN

In Zambia, economic growth is primarily driven by large-scale, formal investments in sectors such as minerals, tourism, and services. However, these sectors employ relatively few people and have a limited impact on overall poverty reduction due to weak economic multipliers.

Consequently, Zambia needs complementary efforts focused on “Growth from Below”, small- scale, informal investments at the household level to effectively reduce poverty, particularly in an economy characterised by high inequality and a heavy reliance on minerals. According to the World Bank (2025), Zambia’s economic growth has a minimal effect on poverty alleviation, meaning that even substantial economic growth results in only modest reductions in poverty levels. While governments typically prioritise large-scale investments, a balanced approach that promotes both Growth from Above (GfA) and Growth from Below (GfB) is essential for inclusive and sustainable poverty reduction.

Furthermore, although the minerals sector is economically significant, it inadequately contributes to government revenues due to externalization of financial flows and opaque financial practices on which significant Zambian institutional capacity has been built (Inter-governmental Forum, 2025). Mineral companies are sometimes able to negotiate special agreements with the Ministry of Finance and Planning to minimise or evade taxes and royalties, as in the recent dropping of a 15% export tax. Addressing these transparency and taxation issues, which have long been a concern for the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA), is crucial to ensure that revenues from mineral wealth are effectively directed towards supporting broader economic initiatives that can genuinely benefit all Zambians.

Written by Andrew Shepherd

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Political Economy Analysis of Pro-poor Policies in Zambia

October 8, 2025 CPAN

In 2024, Zambia experienced the driest agricultural season in over 40 years, with significant crop losses, increased livestock deaths and, consequently, worsening poverty. Over 9 million people in 84 out of 116 districts were affected. Rising inflation impeded access to food for vulnerable households Being dependent on hydropower, the drought resulted in an enormous power deficit. In 2024 and early 2025 Zambia experienced power cuts of 21 hours a day, disproportionately affecting small and medium-sized enterprises that cannot afford solar power or generators.

A debt crisis has exacerbated these climate-related challenges. Zambian debt peaked at 140 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. Along with Covid-19, debt service pressures resulted in Zambia becoming the first African country to default on its external debt service obligations in November 2020, missing a US$42.5 million interest payment on a Eurobond. In addition, Zambia has been hit by three droughts in the past decade. Due to the deaths of two presidents in office (in 2008 and 2014), Zambia has also seen high levels of political turnover, which has impacted policy consistency.

The multiple crises Zambia has faced have had political repercussions, as economic decline has created discontent. The economic effects of crises have further strained the kwacha and resulted in increased inflationary pressures.2 Zambia is under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme that has strict benchmarks when it comes to subsidies for fuel, electricity and fertiliser. This programme ends in August 2025, opening various policy options, though it will lack the fiscal space which gave President Levy Mwanawasa’s free reign after the completion point of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative in 2006. The forthcoming elections in August 2026 will be tightly contested; if the opposition can unite behind one candidate, it will also influence policy decisions.

Within this context, this working paper discusses the following questions: How can poverty reduction experience a step change in Zambia? What are the political and economic conditions? And what can research tell the competing political parties and how best to achieve change The paper will briefly focus on the anti-poverty measures undertaken by the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) government (2011–21), which started as a leftist movement, before zooming into the current United Party for National Development (UPND) regime, which is more liberal in outlook. It then focuses on the political economy of current pro-poor programming. The paper is based on a literature review, unpublished reports, and interviews and interactions with relevant stakeholders (government officials, civil society organisations, think tanks and analysts).

Written by Marja Hinfelaar, SAIPAR

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Dimensions of Urban Poverty in Zambia: Insights, Challenges and Policy Directions

July 28, 2025 CPAN

This study, conducted between May and July 2024, provides empirical evidence on urban poverty among men and women in Lusaka and Ndola. Using a qualitative case study approach, it engaged diverse stakeholders – including informal sector workers, local government officials, district social welfare officers, and civil society representatives – to offer a comprehensive understanding of urban poverty and inform policy recommendations. Data was collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews, ensuring a multi-stakeholder perspective on the lived realities and structural drivers of urban poverty.

Despite Zambia’s resource wealth and its status as one of Africa’s most urbanised nations, urban poverty is widespread. With 40 per cent of Zambia’s 19.6 million people residing in cities, poverty affects 31.9 per cent of urban dwellers – an increase from 23.4 per cent in 2015. This trend underscores the urgent need for targeted antipoverty strategies. While many individuals display resilience, they face persistent challenges such as income instability, food insecurity, inadequate health care, limited educational opportunities and poor housing conditions, all of which undermine their wellbeing and economic agency.

Authored by Cleopas Gabriel Sambo

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Rural Pathways out of Poverty in Zambia

July 28, 2025 CPAN

Authored by Lucia da Corta, Richard Bwalya

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Political Economy Analysis of Pro-poor Policies in Zambia

July 28, 2025 CPAN

Authored by Marja Hinfelaar

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Let's go double dipping! Supporting Growth from Below through Cash+

July 28, 2025 CPAN

Authored by Andrew Shepherd

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National Report - Zambian Poverty Dynamics and Climate Resilience: A Growing Policy Agenda Through a Period of Crises

July 28, 2025 CPAN

This report synthesises the key research findings of the Zambia Poverty Dynamics programme since the last national report in 2021, whose key findings and recommendations are summarised in Box 1.1. Many dimensions have remained the same; however, the main changes include: (1) a dramatic reversal in urban poverty reduction; (2) a very significant increase in new policy developments, especially in human development, although not yet in ‘growth from below’, but significant progress was achieved in fisheries with the return of fishing ban periods each year on major rivers and lakes to allow fish stocks to recover, laying the foundation for income growth in fishing.

This report starts by laying out which policy interventions have become significantly more visible and impactful since the last report, presenting the evidence from quantitative and qualitative research, and focusing on governance and implementation issues. Policy interventions are even more critical to poverty reduction and climate resilience in the Zambian context, it is argued, because of the ‘enclave’ nature of the dominant mining sector, which leads economic growth, at least when commodity prices are high (Pijuan Sala and Tudela Pye 2024), and which the current government wishes to grow rapidly. The majority of Zambians are employed or self-employed in comparatively low-productivity sectors, agriculture and services, which are generally disconnected from mining and other formal sectors such as tourism. Resulting high levels of inequality do not generate the market demand for micro- and small businesses’ outputs and services, leaving these with low investment and productivity. But they do generate the need and potential for redistribution through taxation, even if fiscal resources are for the moment heavily constrained by debt servicing.

As a result of these high inequalities, growth has not carried everyone with it. Therefore, only interventions will assist poor and vulnerable people to improve their life chances, until the pattern of growth changes and begins to make a contribution. So far the most successful interventions have been in human development. Their success has been extremely valuable but has not yet laid the foundations for more inclusive growth from below, which is necessary if poverty is to be sustainably reduced. Both of these – human development and growth from below – are required to enable sustained escapes from poverty or ‘graduations’, which are the objective of anti-poverty policy.

The report goes on to briefly assess the effects of the multiple crises that have assailed Zambia in the past five years, with an analysis of impacts on urban populations, and differentiating between extremely poor and moderately poor households, and men- and women-headed households. It also looks at policy responses to these crises, including disaster risk management, and raises the question of how to respond in the likely event that such crisis-prone times continue. This is followed by a closely related discussion on whether and how more widespread resilience to climate change might be achieved. The analysis is gendered throughout, and concludes with key policy and programming recommendations.

Authored by Andrew Shepherd, Richard Bwalya, Antony Chapoto, Lucia da Corta, Marta Eichsteller, Vidya Diwakar, Marja Hinfelaar, Mary Lubungu, Arthur Moonga, Brian Mulenga, Kate Pruce, Joseph Simbaya

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Empowered Worldviews: Assessing the persistence of psychosocial intervention effects in Zambia

February 16, 2024 CPAN

Evidence on the persistence of psychosocial outcomes of interventions over the medium and long term, and in the face of shocks and stressors, is limited. We examined the extent to which empowerment associated with a psychosocial, faith-based approach, Empowered Worldview (EWV) persisted 3–5 years post-delivery of the intervention in Zambia among smallholder farmers. The EWV intervention in Zambia was delivered as part of THRIVE, an integrated livelihoods programme. We followed a previous study to disaggregate individual-level empowerment associated with EWV into three domains: internal (which relates to ‘power within’), localised (typically participation and access), and structural (e.g. institutional, environmental, and social structures).

To explore the persistence of EWV effects on empowerment, we used mixed methods and longitudinal data collected in 2020 and 2023, which were the midline and endline points of the THRIVE programme. Empirically, we used descriptive and regression analysis to compare internal and localised empowerment levels between the survey rounds (2020 and 2023) across study groups – including groups that received EWV before and after 2020 – and to the control group. We also re-interviewed a subset of EWV participants interviewed in 2020 to understand how empowerment has changed at the individual level over time.

The results show levels of internal empowerment associated with the EWV intervention persisted between the midline and endline surveys, especially when combined with THRIVE livelihood interventions. At the midline, 80.0 per cent of THRIVE with EWV participants were empowered, compared to 82.3 per cent at the endline. In contrast, 72.6 per cent and 73.07 per cent of the control sample participants were empowered at the midline and the endline, respectively. Quantitative results further show that localised empowerment significantly improved between survey rounds among participants who received EWV training and is positively associated with internal empowerment, consistent with literature that suggests localised enablers (supporting social environments) are crucial to sustaining internal empowerment. The qualitative data shows that persistent internal and localised empowerment was observed mostly among households in the non-poor wellbeing category, suggesting that additional interventions are needed to reach the poorest participants. Results also show internal and localised empowerment are positively associated with indicators of household resilience. We conclude the paper with recommendations for programming.

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For further insights on the first phase of the study, click here

Zambia Poverty Dynamics Research

November 23, 2023 CPAN

The policy agenda proposed here builds on good measures already taken by the Government of Zambia in education, social protection, debt relief and macroeconomic management, and addresses the challenges that remain in creating a more prosperous and equal Zambia.

The rate of poverty reduction slowed in Zambia during the 2010s, and especially with the 2019 drought and policy responses to the pandemic. A high level of rural chronic poverty is associated with farming and other natural resource-based occupations, suggesting that natural resource management requires significant policy attention. Surprisingly, chronic poverty is highest in eastern and southern Zambia, despite the maize- and livestock-based economics in those regions.

In the context of continuing climate change, risks to natural resource-based occupations are increasing rapidly, which keeps people poor. Sustained escapes from poverty have not exceeded downward mobility into poverty. Urbanised provinces have typically done better than rural ones in reducing extreme poverty and deprivation.

Zambia’s debt servicing obligations and low economic growth have meant that public expenditure is constrained, though a little less in 2023 than in 2022 when reduced debt servicing allowed increased allocations to education and social protection budgets among others. Significantly greater public expenditure will be needed to recapture a higher rate of poverty reduction. However, it is also important that expenditure goes to items that will reach and benefit poor and vulnerable people.

This policy brief recommends a series measures, several of which are already underway, and within a sound macroeconomic management framework that has been put in place.

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COVID-19 Life History Infographics: Zambia

July 13, 2023 CPAN

Impacts of the Government of Zambia’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic on Poverty

July 13, 2023 CPAN

COVID-19 tested the social welfare system that successive governments have been building in Zambia over the last two decades. Zambia had one of the highest poverty rates in the world going into the COVID-19 pandemic as well as overlapping vulnerabilities related to climate change, macroeconomic instability, and high external debt. These and other challenges exposed many people living above the poverty line to impoverishment and pushed households living in poverty further towards destitution.

Civil Society for Poverty Reduction (CSPR), the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network (CPAN), and the Institute of Social and Economic Research (INESOR) have been monitoring the impacts of the pandemic on people living in or near poverty in Zambia since early 2021 in three districts – Lusaka, Kabwe and Chipata - about the reach and impact of these policies. This policy brief reviews the Government of Zambia’s key policies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living in or near poverty and summarises insights from people affected by these policies about what they have achieved and how they can be improved.

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Literature Review: Poverty Dynamics and Drivers in Zambia (1964-2019)

December 13, 2021 CPAN

The Zambian Chronic poverty study, for which this literature review has been conducted, investigates and interrogates chronic poverty dynamics in Zambia. Although chronic poverty has existed for a long time, no specific study of this magnitude and scope has been conducted to provide a comprehensive understanding of chronic poverty dynamics in the country. The study has two objectives as follows:

The study seeks to establish a dynamic understanding of the chronically poor in the post-2010 period in Zambia, to draw conclusions about who is being left behind, why and what can be done about it.
The second objective is to establish a qualitative baseline for future monitoring work, similar to the WIDE project in Ethiopia.

The key research questions include:

Why has extreme poverty (and hunger) remained at such a high level and so widespread especially in rural areas, despite economic growth, political stability, and a reasonable human development record?
To what extent is this accounted for by chronic poverty or by mobility around the poverty line or different combinations of these in different places?
What are the main sources of vulnerability, and how do these combine to impoverish or allow only temporary escapes from poverty where this is the case?
Why are women headed households typically poorer than men-headed households? And what is the contribution of gender and other social relationships to sustained escapes/chronic poverty/impoverishment?
Urban poverty is held to have declined faster than rural. Why is this? Is urban poverty and wellbeing correctly estimated? What results do alternative measures of urban poverty give?
How are policies and major programmes contributing to poverty dynamics?

This literature demonstrates that, despite a favourable economy at Independence and some years afterwards, Zambia’s poverty levels have ranked among the highest in the world. Over the past five decades, Zambia has undergone several somewhat distinct policy regimes, each with varied implications on poverty. This review is divided into two sections. The first section analyses the performance of the Zambian economy over five decades, from 1964 to 2016, to reflect on policies and strategies that drove, sustained and/or reduced poverty levels and to place Zambia’s economic growth, structural changes and declines in a historical and socio-economic policy perspectives. The second section provides a conceptual and methodological overview, a detailed analysis of the historical and present poverty conditions and trends including ongoing and future poverty reduction strategies and interventions.

Authors: Phillimon Ndubani, Bwalya Chiti, Tamara Billima, Marja Hineflaar, Virginia Bond

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A Qualitative Understanding of Poverty Dynamics in Zambia

December 13, 2021 CPAN

This qualitative study, carried out from 2019 to 2020, describes poverty trajectories in Zambia, with a strong focus on the post-2010 period and on sustainable escape from poverty. There is limited qualitative research in Zambia on assessment of poverty dynamics that encompasses both drivers that support sustainable escapes from poverty and drivers of poverty descent. The importance of understanding these poverty dynamics, their geographical distribution and trends over time, as well as how they respond to policies and programmes, cannot be overemphasized.

Under the leadership of Chronic Poverty Advisory Network (CPAN), and with funding from DFID, a research partnership between Zambart, LSHTM (UK), INESOR and CPAN conducted this qualitative component that was part of a broader study of Zambia Poverty Dynamics. The other broader study components included the analysis of two sets of survey data, namely the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods panel survey 2012-2015-2019 and the Living Conditions and Monitoring Survey 2010 & 2015. This was carried out by IAPRI (RALS) and INESOR (INESOR) respectively. Two other components provided modelling forecasting of poverty up to 2060, led by the University of Denver, and a political economy analysis, led by SAIPAR. The mixed methods findings across all components are presented in a national report (see Shepherd and Bond et al., 2021). This report focuses on the qualitative component.

Authors: Virginia Bond, Joseph Simbaya, Chiti Bwalya, Lucia da Corta, Arthur M Moonga, Monde Mwamba, Lwiindi Gwanu, Marta Eichsteller, Phillimon Ndubani

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Poverty Dynamics in Zambia

December 13, 2021 CPAN

Zambia remains a high-poverty country despite having attained middle-income status in 2011. According to projections, the country’s high levels of poverty will persist through to the middle of this century unless significant new policies and programmes can be developed. This report outlines the findings of a quantitative and qualitative analysis of poverty dynamics – defined as being stuck in poverty, escaping poverty either temporarily or in a sustained way, or becoming poor – and draws out policy implications.

Structural financial distress is manifested in the high levels of severe/food poverty, chronic poverty and impoverishment in rural areas witnessed by this study, which are strongly linked to environmental sustainability issues (deteriorating fish stocks, soil fertility, drought and floods) and disaster risk. There are many further effects: inability to cope with health shocks over time, early marriage, alcoholism, divorce, and a high number of chronically poor women-headed households. Panel data reveals relatively less poverty in urban areas compared to rural areas, but high levels of inequality within urban areas. Those in poorer urban townships endure high rents and the threat of eviction, precarious labour incomes and exploitation marked by long periods of unemployment. Inflation in the costs of living, together with the real costs of educating children, are not met by rising employment and incomes.

Sustained escapes are all too rare – where they occur, they are characterised by diversification within farming or into nonfarm enterprises, and by transitions from rural to urban residence. However, rural-urban migration as a pathway out of poverty is limited in Zambia compared to many other countries, indicating a need to spread the ‘inclusive urban development’ now being pioneered in Lusaka to other cities and towns across the country, in the hope that urban areas become more migrant-friendly. Impoverishment and temporary escapes from poverty are much more common in rural areas. A much greater emphasis in policy development is needed to prevent people falling (back) into poverty as well as to tackle the widespread rural chronic poverty. In urban areas, there is an urgent need to invest in the country’s power generation and electricity distribution system to avoid a repetition of the employment crisis generated by the 2019 drought and persistent load shedding. Load shedding has significant impacts on people’s livelihoods, especially traders, saloon and barber shop owners, welders and other users of electricity. Increasing the rate of rural electrification and access for poorer households will also help build resilience through investments in irrigation and nonfarm enterprises.

The overall context is one of macroeconomic vulnerability and constraints on public action. Zambia is a Least Developed Country (LDC) that is mineral-dependent, debt-distressed and with a revenue deficit. It also suffers from long-term urban–rural, inter-provincial and gender inequalities and highly contested politics characterised by weak policy development and implementation. With the advent of a new government, policies now need to tackle the causes of adverse poverty dynamics, and to introduce innovations into the policy framework – this research has suggestions on what they should be. Implementation problems are widespread, with examples including regularly delayed subsidised fertiliser distribution (despite early requests for down payments from beneficiaries), inadequate financing of social cash transfers and associated corruption scandals, and inadequate financing of the Food Security Pack programme. These contextual factors significantly constrain the effectiveness of state action on poverty reduction.

Zambians have faced a recent period of sharp shocks to the incomes of the poor (from 2017 to end-2019) as well as a decade (2011 to present) of systemic stressors driving a slower decline in income, savings and assets which increased the vulnerability to the recent shocks faced by households and those brought on by COVID-19 in 2020–21. The management of the 2019 drought is being evaluated, but the official response appears to have left much to be desired. Coupled with concerns about COVID-19 donor funding, questions are being raised about the politicisation of relief.

In this context, it is remarkable that some people can still escape poverty and remain out of it. The qualitative research revealed how these ‘sustained escapers’ demonstrate the benefits of education (including educated children), a stable marriage, women’s empowerment, diverse livelihoods, hard work, compassionate employer-labour relationships and careful management of health, partners, recreational pursuits and assets. In the medium term, getting agriculture policy right, combined with supporting diversification and inclusive urbanisation and supported by significant increases in public expenditure on health and education, will go a long way towards supporting those escapes and supporting more people to escape in the first place. With its 8th National Development Plan in process and a new government, Zambia has a major opportunity to tackle its persistently high poverty levels.

Authors: Andrew Shepherd, Virginia Bond, Chiti Bwalya, Richard Bwalya, Antony Chapoto, Lucia da Corta, Vidya Diwakar, Marta Eichsteller, Lwiindi Gwanu, Mary Lubungu, Monde Mwamba, Phillimon Ndubani, Joseph Simbaya and Mitelo Subakanya

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