Zambia is increasingly exposed to climate-related shocks, particularly droughts and floods, which continue to undermine agricultural productivity, household welfare, and long-term development. In response, geographically concentrated investments – referred to as growth poles – have been promoted as engines of pro-poor growth and resilience. However, evidence of their effectiveness is limited. This study examines whether and how growth poles contribute to poverty reduction and climate resilience using a mixed-methods approach that combines nationally representative spatial data from Living Conditions Monitoring Surveys, panel data on poverty trajectories from the Rural and Agricultural Livelihood Survey, and qualitative evidence from focus group discussions, life histories, and key informant interviews conducted across selected growth pole districts, including including farm blocks, mining areas, national parks, and sugar estates.
The findings show that growth poles can stimulate economic activity and generate new livelihood opportunities, but their impacts are uneven and context-specific. Agro-industrial growth poles, particularly sugar estates, exhibit the strongest poverty outcomes due to deeper integration with local production systems and labour markets. Mining areas generate significant economic dynamism and employment opportunities, but benefits are uneven, often accruing to individuals with higher skills, capital, or social connections, including migrants. In contrast, farm blocks and national parks show persistently high poverty levels, reflecting limited infrastructure, restricted access to productive resources, and the seasonal or unstable nature of available opportunities.
Proximity to growth poles does not automatically translate into improved welfare. Only a small share of households live close to these investments, and poverty remains high even among nearby communities. In some cases, households located in intermediate zones (21–60km from growth poles) exhibit better poverty outcomes than those closest to growth poles, suggesting that spillover benefits – such as improved market access – extend beyond core investment areas while avoiding congestion and rising living costs. Growth poles contribute to livelihood diversification, which is a key pathway to resilience. Households engaged in non-farm employment, enterprise activities, and diversified income portfolios are better able to cope with climatic shocks. However, the resilience benefits of diversification depend on the quality and stability of these opportunities. In many cases, growth pole-linked employment is informal, low paid, and seasonal, limiting its ability to provide sustained protection against shocks.
A central finding is that growth poles generate selective rather than broad-based welfare gains. Households with greater amounts of assets, more education, and more developed social networks are better positioned to benefit from employment, contracts, and supply opportunities. As a result, growth poles contribute to localised economic transformation while reinforcing socioeconomic differentiation. Importantly, households that do not benefit are not necessarily worse off than before, but experience more limited gains relative to others, reflecting uneven inclusion rather than absolute decline. The study also finds that growth poles do not automatically enhance climate resilience. In some contexts, particularly mining aeras and farm blocks, resilience has declined over time due to unstable livelihoods, continued reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture, and structural constraints such as limited land access and weak market integration.
Policy implications emphasise the need for complementary interventions. Strengthening household asset bases is critical for enabling participation in growth pole economies and enhancing resilience. Improving access to appropriately structured finance – particularly for productive investment – can support livelihood upgrading, though grant-based support remains necessary for poorer households. Promoting diversification must be accompanied by efforts to improve the quality and stability of non-farm employment. Strengthening local participation in supply chains is essential to ensure that growth pole demand benefits surrounding communities. Finally, extending investments beyond core growth pole areas can enhance spillover benefits and support more inclusive regional development.
Overall, growth poles have the potential to contribute to poverty reduction and climate resilience, but only when they are supported by policies that expand access to opportunities and address underlying structural inequalities. Without such measures, their benefits are likely to remain localised and uneven.
Authors: Mary Lubungu, Benny Kabwela, Brian Mulenga, Richard Bwalya, Arthur Moonga