Conflict and Poverty Dynamics

How does armed conflict intersect with poverty dynamics, and how can policy and programming effectively address work at the poverty-conflict nexus?

The majority of the world’s poor today are located in FCVS, and these trends are expected to intensify. By 2030, projections suggest that anywhere between 43% and 80% of the world’s extreme poor will live in FCV contexts. Several risks are also noted in the literature to be increasing, including conflict and violent extremism, but also climate change, pandemics, and food insecurity.

These trends and risks pose significant constraints to poverty reduction. There is a mutually reinforcing relationship between poverty and conflict: poverty contributes to conflict, and conflict can impoverish people or deepen poverty. The likelihood that conflict turns extreme poverty into chronic poverty and also impoverishes, means that policy makers need to consider how to address chronic poverty and impoverishment in the context of conflict and conflict-prevention. Experiencing multiple shocks and living in conflict-prone areas have similar and mutually reinforcing effects on wellbeing trajectories.

As such, people living in conflict-affected areas facing multiple sources of vulnerability, both nationally and subnationally, must be a target group for international agencies and donors working to get to zero poverty.

CPAN has produced a suite of research over the years linked to the poverty dynamics and conflict nexus. These have been supported by a variety of funders mentioned within each publication.

 

Project publications
Education, conflict, and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Report
Education, conflict, and resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Report
Educating poor and vulnerable children in conflict-affected areas: Policy Brief
Educating poor and vulnerable children in conflict-affected areas: Policy Brief
Publication Manual "Good practices and strategies to reduce poverty in conflict-affected contexts in sub-Saharan Africa"
Publication Manual "Good practices and strategies to reduce poverty in conflict-affected contexts in sub-Saharan Africa"

This handbook outlines effective strategies to better consider the interplay between poverty and fragility, conflict and violence in programmes and policies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where most of people living in extreme poverty reside today, many in conflict-affected contexts.

Understanding Poverty in Kenya: A multidimensional analysis
Understanding Poverty in Kenya: A multidimensional analysis

The present report seeks to analyze development trends in Kenya and understand the ways in which various groups in the country continue to be left behind.

Pro-poorest growth and poverty dynamics: An assessment of Indian states
Pro-poorest growth and poverty dynamics: An assessment of Indian states

This paper presents initial findings on the relationships between growth, growth incidence across the income distribution and those poverty dynamics in India, a set of relationships which has never previously been investigated.

Trends in poverty and inequality and further clustering of developing countries
Trends in poverty and inequality and further clustering of developing countries

The objective of this study is to provide an in-depth review of the evidence on poverty and associated inequalities, and on what reduces them, in order to inform the European Union’s reflections on implementing the 2030 agenda for sustainable development.

Sustaining poverty escapes in Tanzania - Policy Implications Brief
Sustaining poverty escapes in Tanzania - Policy Implications Brief

This brief draws on results of mixed methods research in Tanzania, to offer policy and programming implications for sustained poverty reduction.

Understanding and supporting sustained pathways out of extreme poverty and deprivation: Tanzania National Report
Understanding and supporting sustained pathways out of extreme poverty and deprivation: Tanzania National Report

This report focuses on household poverty escapes in Tanzania and explains why some households escape poverty and remain out of poverty (sustainable poverty escape, or resilience), while other households escape poverty only to fall back into poverty (transitory poverty escape) or descend into poverty for the first time (impoverishment).

RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE POVERTY ESCAPES IN NEPAL - National Report
RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE POVERTY ESCAPES IN NEPAL - National Report

The focus of this report is on household poverty escapes and what explains why some households escape poverty and remain out of poverty, while other households escape poverty only to fall back into poverty and still other descend into poverty for the first time. 

Conflict, pro-poorest growth, and wellbeing: A subnational analysis
Conflict, pro-poorest growth, and wellbeing: A subnational analysis

This paper addresses that knowledge gap by applying new analytical techniques to existing data, helping to assess the impact of different types of pro-poor interventions in Fragile and Conflict Affected States (FCAS) 

Author: Andrew Shepherd, Vidya Diwakar, Georgina Sturge

Photo credits: Displaced women carrying their belongings arrive in Bossangoa, Central African Republic, after fleeing violence in their village. Photo: © UNHCR/B. Heger

Understanding and supporting sustained pathways out of extreme poverty and deprivation

If the world is to ‘Get to Zero’ extreme poverty this will require, not just ensuring that men and women currently living in poverty are able to escape it, but that new individuals do not become impoverished and that those who have escaped poverty do not once again fall below the poverty line. There are significant variations in the sustainability of poverty escapes, consequently the overall objective of this research project is to investigate how pathways for sustained poverty escape differ. 

Photo Credit: A child peeks through the window of a classroom - Shreeshitalacom Lower Secondary School. Kaski, Nepal. Photo: © Simone D. McCourtie / World Bank - Photo ID: SDM-NP-058 World Bank

 

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Investigating the dynamics and drivers of transitory poverty escapes

Recent research by ODI using existing panel data sets to examine poverty dynamics in 14 countries revealed a disturbing trend.  In  countries like Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, a significant proportion of rural households that escaped poverty have felt back into poverty during the 8 to 10 year period examined. A significant number of rural households that were not poor also became poor during the same period.  To further explore, quantify and understand this trend CPAN, in partnership with ACDI VOCA, have started implementing this USAID funded project. Read more. 

Photo Credit: CPAN

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Evaluating anti-discrimination measures – Phase II

Phase 2 of the anti-discrimination project aims to evaluate the effects of anti-discrimination measures in labour markets and related human development services; to assess the efficacy of civil society advocacy, legal mechanisms and political party activities or other inputs to political decision-making, leading to more effective labour market and related policies, programmes and implementation; to examine the efficiency of resource allocation and implementation mechanisms established to counter the impacts of labour market discrimination on the poor.

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Donor’s best practices in reducing chronic poverty among women and girls

This research projects aims at identifying the policies and programmes which  have improved the livelihoods of chronically poor women and girls and at analysing the trends in donors’ strategies to reduce extreme or chronic poverty among women and girls, as well as their actions. This study is funded by  Global Affairs Canada (GAC), Government of Canada.

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Holding local government to account: Can a performance index provide meaningful accountability?

If you give people a voice, will they be able to hold leaders to account and put pressure on them to take decisions that will improve public services and reduce poverty? This research starts with this question and is based on the idea that good governance can lead to efficient poverty reduction strategies

Photo Credit:  © Dominic Chavez/World Bank

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Leaving no one behind: adjusting economic growth strategies - Pro-poorest growth policy analysis

Since 2000, economic growth is increasingly taking place in developing countries. However, growth benefits the poorest people very variably. CPAN’s concern is that it should do so as much as is politically, economically and socially possible. The overarching objective of this project is to provide national policy makers in the 30 developing countries, which account for the great majority of the extremely poor, with the knowledge they need to develop and implement measures that will ensure that the poorest people are included in economic growth.

Photo Credit: Bertakefe, Timor-Leste. UN Photo/Martine Perret.

 

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Disability, poverty and poverty dynamics: a preliminary analysis of panel data, policies and politics in Bangladesh

What difference does disability makes to poverty dynamics? Currently there is little evidence about this relationship, however it certainly has serious implications, especially on the conditions and processes that influence the outcomes experienced by households which include persons with disabilities. This Bangladesh-based pilot project aims to provide policy makers at national and global levels with an initial idea of what can be learnt about the relationship between disability and poverty dynamics, and how that modifies the picture of the relationship held by policy makers and practitioners.

Photo Credits: © John Isaac / World Bank

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Evaluating anti-discrimination measures - Phase I

Anti-discrimination measures are a key part of poverty eradication policies, and without them, certain categories of people will remain in, or slide back into, poverty. This is the starting-point for this project. It seeks answers to the question: which measures have worked in reducing discrimination against excluded groups and the poorest people, including the poorest children, in lower- and middle-income countries?

Photo Credit: Panos Picture

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